Nascar Race Today

Chase Cup odds removed from board

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Matt Kenseth is the 7-to-2 favorite to win this weekend's EcoBoost 400.

LAS VEGAS - Jimmie Johnson's 28-point lead in the Sprint Cup Chase is so large that the LVH SuperBook has taken the odds to win off their board. All season long they have been updating the prices after each race. However, with Johnson only having to finish 24th in Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, they are basically conceding and saying that Matt Kenseth's chances of winning the title are slim to none.

Last week Johnson was a 1-to-5 favorite to win his sixth championship with only a seven-point lead and two races to go. It doesn't help Kenseth's cause this week that Johnson is using a chassis that has won his last two races on the season (Dover and Charlotte). And it's also not good news for Kenseth that Johnson has finished 13th or better in all nine previous Chase races.

However, if you happen to be rooting for Kenseth, which apparently many are by all the negative tweets sent Johnson's way, then there still is a small glimmer of hope. We can start by looking at Johnson's last four finishes before the Chase started - two 40th-place finishes, a 36th and 28th. If Johnson were to repeat one of those results, Kenseth could take home the title with a win.

We can also look at Johnson's past history at Homestead, such as the last two seasons when he finished 32nd and 36th. Homestead is one of five tracks on the series Johnson has never won at, while Kenseth won there in 2007. Kenseth also has four wins on 1.5-mile tracks this season, while Johnson didn't grab one until Texas three weeks ago.

It would be an unlikely scenario where Kenseth wins it all, but the pressure is all on Johnson to prevent that from happening. Last year he had a slim chance to the title, down by 20 points to Brad Keselowski and failed. So many things have to go wrong for Johnson to lose, but in 2013 we can't necessarily say Johnson has been immune to bad luck. At times, it appeared all his good luck from the past came cycling around for payback.

Beyond Johnson's psyche for this race, there are so many other things that can happen with mechanical failures, tire issues, or being involved in someone else's mistake resulting in a crash. He could run the perfect race in his mind only to have someone else's car spill oil in front of him.

Although Johnson should have a car in place capable of going for the win, he's more likely to be racing the standings and playing it safe, even though sometimes the safest place is being the leader. Because of the likelihood of Johnson falling back, his odds to win this week are at 15-to-1, a large number rarely seen posted on Johnson for a 1.5-mile track. Kenseth is the 7-to-2 favorite.

While Johnson's crew may be updating him on the No. 20 throughout the race, they may want to pay some attention to the No. 29 car. Kevin Harvick is 34-points behind Johnson and has always fared well at Homestead. His 7.9 average finish is second best to only Carl Edwards (6.0) in track history. He's never won there, but does have two second-places finishes and is currently on a roll, having won two Chase races, as well as two wins on 1.5-mile tracks.

There's a lot to root for with Harvick, especially since this will be his final race with Richard Childress Racing, as next year he'll be driving for Stewart-Haas Racing. He's been a fan favorite since taking over Dale Earnhardt's ride in 2001, and the alliance has always kind of put him into NASCAR royalty with the fans. Winning this race would be the ultimate send-off, and winning the championship would be the most epic ride off into the Miami sunset NASCAR has seen.

With all of Harvick's success, it says a lot about the character of car owner Richard Childress, who has known for several months that Harvick would be departing. He could have given Harvick a jalopy to serve out his time, but instead gave him cars weekly that have put him in position to win a title in the last race, a situation every driver wished he or she had. Even a little family grumbling with Childress' grandkids - the Dillon brothers - following a Truck Series race didn't keep Childress from giving Harvick winning cars.

History says Johnson won't fail in this situation. The only times the leader after nine Chase races has failed to win the title was in 2010 and 2011, and the biggest deficit was 15-points, which Johnson erased to win his final title. And we still talk about Alan Kulwicki's comeback in 1992, but his 30-point comeback only equates to about seven points under the new scoring formula. There's a good reason Sprint Cup odds aren't posted this week, but it's still not over yet, and anything can happen, even though it usually doesn't.

Here's a look at the LVH odds to win Sunday's season finale:

MATT KENSETH 7-2KYLE BUSCH 5-1KASEY KAHNE 7-1KEVIN HARVICK 7-1BRAD KESELOWSKI 8-1DENNY HAMLIN 12-1JEFF GORDON 12-1DALE EARNHARDT JR 12-1JOEY LOGANO 12-1JIMMIE JOHNSON 15-1CARL EDWARDS 18-1KURT BUSCH 20-1MARTIN TRUEX JR 20-1CLINT BOWYER 20-1GREG BIFFLE 30-1RYAN NEWMAN 30-1JAMIE McMURRAY 100-1JUAN MONTOYA 100-1JEFF BURTON 200-1MARK MARTIN 200-1PAUL MENARD 200-1RICKY STENHOUSE JR 200-1ELLIOTT SADLER 300-1ARIC ALMIROLA 300-1MARCOS AMBROSE 300-1TREVOR BAYNE 500-1AJ ALLMENDINGER 500-1KYLE LARSON 500-1DANICA PATRICK 1000-1FIELD 200-1

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