Nascar Race Today

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Dale Earnhardt Jr. is one of six co-favorites sharing 10-to-1 odds to win at Talladega this weekend.

LAS VEGAS - The LVH SuperBook has posted six drivers as 10-to-1 co-favorites to win Sunday's Camping World RV Sales 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. The volatile nature of the beastly 2.66-mile track is the main reason there are so many co-favorites jumbled into the top slot at such a high price.

When posting odds for a NASCAR race, the first thing books such as the LVH like to do is figure out what their desired theoretic hold is. They are routinely the lowest in Las Vegas, at about 28 percent (lower is always better for the player). Then they have to shape the odds on a probability model. Who does well at a track? Who is running well at the moment? How have drivers run at similar tracks on the season?

All those things shape the numbers and in 32 of the 36 races, the drivers marking high on the meter have their odds placed at low numbers such as 5-to-1, a price Jimmie Johnson often sees. The drivers that do poorly and have almost no shot at winning get placed at odds of 100-to-1. Meanwhile, others like Danica Patrick last week at Charlotte, get placed at 1,000-to-1 odds.

Think of it like a grading curve in school. The sports book grading curve is shaped around that theoretic hold percentage.

When restrictor-plate races come around four times a year - twice each at Daytona and Talladega - the probability of less successful drivers winning increases, which in turn forces the books to lower their odds. In doing so, the usual favorites have to be boosted up to higher odds to get them back to their desired theoretic hold. Instead of 15 to 18 drivers having a legitimate shot at winning at places like Charlotte, plate races - where the cars are more evenly matched than anywhere - have about 35 drivers that can win.

Because Talladega usually has more passing than Daytona, and the packs are more tightly bunched together late in the race, the probability for a driver like David Gilliland goes up even more than it would at Daytona. Gilliland is 60-to-1 to win this week. Last week at Charlotte, he was part of the Field bet at 300-to-1.

Gilliland is used as an example here because he finished second in the May Talladega race, and pushed his Front Row Motorsports teammate David Ragan to the win. In 32 other races, this duo has no shot. But strap the plate on and they will give all the point leaders a run for their money. Ragan paid out at 100-to-1 odds with his second career win, the first of which also came on a plate race at Daytona in 2011.

David Ragan's odds this week? Try only 40-to-1.

Even Danica Patrick finds herself getting lots of respect from the books at 40-to-1 because of her surprising knack for challenging in the plate races. She got caught up in a 12-car crash with 10 laps remaining in the first Talladega race this season, but in both Daytona races, she had a car capable of winning, finishing eighth in the Daytona 500 and 14th in the summer race.

This season there are only two cars that have finished in the top-5 at all three plate races. Johnson won both Daytona races and came in fifth at Talladega. The No. 55 car driven by Mark Martin was third in the Daytona 500 and Michael Waltrip drove it to fourth-place at Talladega and then fifth in July at Daytona.

The most surprising non-top-5 finisher of all three races has been Matt Kenseth, who kicked off his season with a great Daytona speed week, and has led a ton of laps (142 of 192 laps at Talladega), but he just hasn't been in the right place at the right time to snatch a win. Kenseth is one of the co-favorites at 10-to-1 this week along with Johnson, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

An interesting look this week is Carl Edwards, who at 18-to-1, is still searching for his first restrictor plate win. He finished third at Talladega in May and the Roush Fenway Racing program has been one of the better plate teams over the last six seasons that has seen drivers like Kenseth, Ragan and Jamie McMurray all go to victory lane.

Edwards has been close several times and even crossed the finish line running, with his legs, like Ricky Bobby at Talladega on a last turn wreck in 2009 that saw his car get airborne. He had been battling with Brad Keselowski for the win, but the car, after a couple of rolls, never crossed the finish line and finished the race 24th.

The real fun in this race - beyond sitting on the edge of your seat for those final 10 laps, gripping a bet ticket on a couple of drivers like the final turn at the Kentucky Derby - will be watching what the point leaders do. Johnson has played the waiting game at Talladega better than anyone over the past seven years of the Chase. But with Kenseth ahead of him in points and driving a car that can stay out front of all the wreckage when "The Big One" eventually happens, Johnson may be forced to change up his strategy a bit. Every little bonus point counts and if Kenseth leads the most laps again Sunday, that's at least one more point that Johnson can never get.

Here's a look at the complete list of odds to win this week and updated numbers to win the Sprint Cup with five races remaining:

JIMMIE JOHNSON 10-1

MATT KENSETH 10-1

KYLE BUSCH 10-1

JEFF GORDON 10-1

KEVIN HARVICK 10-1

DALE EARNHARDT JR 10-1

KASEY KAHNE 15-1

BRAD KESELOWSKI 15-1

KURT BUSCH 15-1

CLINT BOWYER 15-1

CARL EDWARDS 18-1

JOEY LOGANO 20-1

GREG BIFFLE 20-1

JAMIE McMURRAY 20-1

DENNY HAMLIN 25-1

MARTIN TRUEX JR 25-1

RYAN NEWMAN 30-1

MICHAEL WALTRIP 40-1

DANICA PATRICK 40-1

JUAN MONTOYA 40-1

AUSTIN DILLON 40-1

PAUL MENARD 40-1

RICKY STENHOUSE JR 40-1

ARIC ALMIROLA 40-1

JEFF BURTON 40-1

DAVID RAGAN 40-1

SAM HORNISH JR 50-1

DAVID GILLILAND 60-1

MARCOS AMBROSE 75-1

TREVOR BAYNE 75-1

JUSTIN ALLGAIER 100-1

CASEY MEARS 100-1

DAVE BLANEY 200-1

FIELD 30-1

JIMMIE JOHNSON 1-2

MATT KENSETH 7-5

KEVIN HARVICK 15-1

KYLE BUSCH 20-1

JEFF GORDON 25-1

CLINT BOWYER 60-1

GREG BIFFLE 60-1

CARL EDWARDS 60-1

DALE EARNHARDT JR 60-1

KURT BUSCH 60-1

JOEY LOGANO 100-1

RYAN NEWMAN 200-1

KASEY KAHNE 200-1

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CONCORD, N.C. - There are five races remaining in the 2013 Sprint Cup season, but NASCAR took a major step toward next year with a test Monday at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

With a goal of engendering more passing by improving handling in traffic, six drivers representing the three manufacturers tried seven changes bundled in three configurations on the Gen 6 car, which made its debut this year.

NASCAR vice president of innovation Gene Stefanyshyn said all of the changes, which included a strip across the roof, a larger spoiler and a slightly raised splitter, could be incorporated into the cars for 2014.

"It's essentially all aimed at aerodynamics," Stefanyshyn said. "Some of the chassis changes are to bring more stability to car. Our intent is to learn as much as we can. Not everything we try will be successful. Those that work will find their way into '14 package. Those with more work will be in the '15 package. The plan is to get through this and then start turning an eye to '15."

Running laps on the 1.5-mile oval were Jamie McMurray and Jeff Burton for Chevrolet; Trevor Bayne and Brad Keselowski for Ford and Denny Hamlin and Brett Moffitt (substituting in place of Brian Vickers) for Toyota.

Among the most promising of the proposed adjustments is the abolition of a minimum height rule, which would allow teams to keep their cars' front ends glued to the track and reduce the dependence on airflow.

The theory is that less emphasis on aerodynamics should allow more stability to a trailing car as it attempts a pass.

"The no ride-height rule is a real positive," Burton said. "There might be bigger stuff, but I think that's the best chance to have a positive with no negative. I just think that it makes a lot of sense being able to hold the ride height more stable and more secure. I don't think it's night and day on the track (and) going to be some crazy difference in how you drive behind other cars, but a little bit here and a little bit there adds up."

Penske Racing director of competition Travis Geisler said other changes aimed at minimizing drag and improving downforce also should help with passing.

"The trail car is at such a deficit," Geisler said. "You hear all the drivers refer to what they say is a wall they try to pass somebody on the straightaway. What they've come up with, you're not going to have an advantage, but you're at least not going to have the disadvantage that you've had. Hopefully that will take care of it.

"I know all of us want to see more passing for the lead. That's what everybody comes to watch, and we're all here to do everything to try to make that a reality for us. Our cars are much more equal than what they used to be. When a car is out front, the biggest difference between them is position in the air. To overcome that, you're going to have to defy physics a little bit. You're going to have some trickery involved to get around it. That's what they're trying to do with some of the packages here is to really trick the system a little."

Stefanyshyn said NASCAR was measuring several sources of data - from timing and scoring data showing passes per lap to fan feedback in social media - in finding ways to try to improve the action on 1.5-mile superspeedways such as Charlotte, which make up the bulk of the schedule.

"We're seeking the truth," he said. "We've heard some say (the cars) need to go faster, some say they need to go slower. If you listen to everybody you're going in a lot of different directions. We try to find the centroid of the opinion, look for data and marry the two up. It's never going to be 100% perfect. We do the best we can with it."

We interrupt your regularly scheduled NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup for an appearance by Brad Keselowski.

You remember Kez, don't you? The defending Sprint Cup titleholder, and only the second reigning champion who failed to qualify for the Chase the next year.

He may not be contending for the championship again this year, but BK has certainly managed to keep himself in the spotlight. On Saturday, he did it in the right way by winning the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Keselowski was his usual ebullient self after the drought-breaking victory, exulting in Victory Lane and wisecracking to the media.

But here's the thing: Nice as it was to see the reigning NASCAR champion bounce back from a statistically subpar season to score a feel-good first victory as a Ford driver, Charlotte was a virtual push in terms of the real story.

With Matt Kenseth finishing third and Jimmie Johnson fourth, the change (or "delta," to use highfalutin Formula One terminology) in terms of the championship was minimal. One point.

At the halfway point of the Chase, Kenseth holds a slim 4-point advantage over five-time Cup champ Johnson. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch all finished in the top seven at Charlotte to remain mathematically within one race's worth of points from Kenseth, but Greg Biffle and the rest, who are 58 points back or more, are going to need a miracle.

Kenseth wasn't happy with his qualifying at Charlotte, but crew chief Jason Ratcliff methodically improved Matt's Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota to run strong at the end of the race. Kenseth narrowly missed beating Kasey Kahne for second place.

"Certainly, we're glad we're still leading," Kenseth said. "Tonight was a big positive for us. It was a little bit of a struggle this weekend more than we anticipated. But about our second or third adjustment, Jason and our group really hit it and really found something that I liked, and our car started driving really good. I could pass really good, and start working our way up through the field.

"Overall, I was really proud of my whole Dollar General team. They had a great pit stop there at the end, did a great job with adjustments."

Johnson, on the other hand, led 130 laps Saturday night and came away disappointed with his fourth-place finish. The driver of the Lowe's Chevrolet struggled on the final restart and was never able to make up ground to the top three in the closing laps.

"Down in [Turns] 1 and 2, I was just in the dirty air and I pushed the No. 5 off into 1," Johnson said. "He didn't get the best restart, and something to do with that combo got me off the bottom, and a couple of cars got into the side of me.

"If we could have restarted on the front row, I think it would have been a much different result for us, but it didn't happen," he added. "We led some laps tonight, had a good car. I'm not sure what happened in the points, but I know it's awfully tight up there right now."

Outside the Chase, points didn't matter a lick to defending champion Keselowski. Instead, the remaining races in 2013 are all about building toward another run at the title in 2014.

"We can't look back; we've got to look forward." Keselowski said. "We won here today, and I want to win every other race left in this season, and I want to win next year. So spending a lot of time complaining about missing out on opportunities early in the season isn't going to do us any good.

"We've got to look forward and we've got to find ways to win as the sport continues to evolve."

On Saturday, it looked like a stuck jack might prevent Keselowski and his No. 2 Miller Lite Ford from scoring their first victory of 2013. But despite an extra pit stop to remove it, BK was in position to race for the win at the end.

It was the first race win for a non-Chase contender since Kahne won at Phoenix International Raceway in November 2011.

"You know, the perception is, and rightfully so, that the guys in the Chase are the cream of the crop, and they should win races and probably sweep the Chase," said Keselowski. "But this is a very good team. All season long we've had the speed. We've had what we need to be a championship team. We just haven't put them all together.

"All the pieces haven't come together on the nights that count, and they for the most part did tonight."

Autos, Open-Wheel

So we've pretty much come full circle now with the Generation-6 car in a year's time. NASCAR is holding a test today at Charlotte Motor Speedway working towards the future of improving what I believe to already be a great product. NASCAR has been holding steady on making any changes until they gave the teams enough time to make their own changes.

Now I think they are at that point where NASCAR feels the teams have gone as far as they could and while they are very satisfied with the it, they aren't 100 percent happy with it. So now is the time to start developing or at least start experimenting with multiple cars on the race track to figure out where those changes and improvements might come from.

Obviously the goal is to start the 2014 season with an even better race car than we have now. Naturally they have newer ideas now that they didn't have a year ago or even back to early June or back to April. Now NASCAR wants to take those ideas and experiment to see if any of them will help make the car even more competitive than it already is.

All this is geared toward giving the fans what they want, plus giving the drivers what they want. It will also give Goodyear the data it needs to build a better tire around this race car. Sure, we've been setting new track records all year long and that is phenomenal. Now can some tweaks or improvements make for better racing?

By no stretch of the imagination am I saying it's been a bad year for this new car. It's been far from that, but the moving target always will be can we make the product even better? Historically, the longer we have a certain generation of car, the drivers get happier with it.

So I think it's just a great time to take a look at where things are and experiment to see where things might could go. I know NASCAR has ideas and suggestions they want to try. The drivers and teams also have suggestions that they would like NASCAR to experiment with to see what might come from it.

The ultimate goal in all this is like I mentioned earlier, to make the racing even better in 2014 than it has been in 2013. This test today is the start of trying to make that happen. Today's test is the start to hopefully give the drivers a better chance to pass on the mile and a half or bigger tracks. Where NASCAR and the drivers/teams are right now is this Gen-6 car is really good but the exciting thing is it can actually be even better. That bodes nothing but excitement for the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup season.

Commentary

By John Oreovicz | ESPN.com

Rick Dole/Getty Images Adrian Fernandez gave NASCAR a brief try as his Indy car career was winding down. Now he's hopeful some young Mexican drivers get an opportunity in the stock car circuit.

NASCAR no longer stages a Nationwide Series race in Mexico, but a cultural shift from road racing to American-style oval competition is gradually taking place south of the U.S. border.

Rising young Mexican stars once looked to emulate national idols like the Rodriguez brothers (Ricardo and Pedro) in Formula One, or Adrian Fernandez in Indy cars. But these days, many of those aspiring racers set a career trajectory for NASCAR instead.

"In my days, NASCAR was probably nonexistent in Mexico," said Fernandez, who won 11 CART- and IRL-sanctioned Indy car races between 1996 and 2004 as well as the 2009 American Le Mans Series LMP2 championship.

"Road racing was the big thing for many, many years. Things have changed now, definitely."

NASCAR has been directly involved in supporting grassroots oval racing in Mexico since 1994, resulting in the construction of a half dozen racing facilities. While many include road course options -- including the top-notch Autodromo Miguel E. Abed in Puebla, which hosted a round of the World Touring Car Championship from 2005 to 2009 -- the clear emphasis in these new venues is on the oval.

The Mexican-based NASCAR Toyota Series is composed of 16 rounds staged on seven ovals and one road course. The lone American race is staged at Phoenix International Raceway.

NASCAR began its Drive for Diversity program in 2004, and creating a path to the top levels of American stock car racing for Hispanic drivers remains a key part of the initiative.

This year, NASCAR has partnered with the Hispanic Scholarship Fund to commemorate National Hispanic Heritage Month (Sept. 15-Oct. 15) with a new dollars-per-lap donation program featuring drivers Aric Almirola, Juan Pablo Montoya, Nelson Piquet Jr., German Quiroga, Miguel Paludo, Bryan Ortiz, Jack Madrid and Daniel Suarez. The funds will benefit Latino students pursuing an education in STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) programs.

While a handful of Mexicans have made occasional Nationwide or Sprint Cup Series starts -- generally as "road course ringers" at Sonoma or Watkins Glen -- Quiroga is the first product of Mexico's NASCAR feeder system to emerge with a full-time presence in America.

The 33-year-old from Mexico City began racing in Mexico's version of the Dodge Neon Challenge in 1996. He bounced around between sedan and Formula car racing, making it as far as Indy Lights, before concentrating in the stock-car-based Desafio Corona (Corona Challenge) in 2006.

After finishing second in the championship in 2007 and '08, Quiroga won the renamed NASCAR Toyota Series three consecutive years from 2009-11 before trying to latch on in the United States, where he drove a partial Camping World Truck Series schedule in 2012.

In 2013, Quiroga got his full-time break in the U.S. and landed a ride in the No. 77 Red Horse Racing Toyota. He's currently 15th in the Truck series standings, with a pair of third-place finishes at Texas and Pocono. He also became the first Mexican to earn a Truck series pole, at Iowa Speedway.

"It's getting better and better each time," Quiroga said. "I feel each weekend we have improved. My first year in the NASCAR Mexico Series was OK, but it started to change after my second year. I'm expecting to have that same rhythm in the Truck series, but just a little better.

"We're in the top 15 in points, and my goal is to get into the top 10 and challenge for the rookie of the year," he added.

A few decades ago, Quiroga's dream would have been to race Formula One or Indy cars. But F1 left the Mexican market in 1992, and despite Fernandez's star status, Indy car racing struggled to gain a loyal Mexican following despite running in Monterrey and Mexico City from 2001-07.

In fact, toward the end of his career, Fernandez's sponsors encouraged him to switch to NASCAR; he ran a few exploratory Nationwide Series races for Hendrick Motorsports but preferred to concentrate on sports cars with his own team, eventually competing in the 24 Hours of Le Mans with Aston Martin.

"I tried a few [NASCAR] races in 2005, but I didn't want to commit to learning a new series at that stage of my career and do so many weekends of racing," he said.

Fernandez recently served as Mexican F1 driver Sergio Perez's manager and helped his countryman land a ride with the McLaren-Mercedes team. He's hopeful that the possible return of the Mexican Grand Prix to the F1 schedule will reinvigorate the road racing scene in his homeland.

"The NASCAR series is probably the most successful form of racing in Mexico right now," Fernandez said. "With 'Checo' [Perez] in Formula One, it's important to have a base of all types of racing, not just NASCAR. But at the same time, it's important to keep on the NASCAR side, because there is a strong Latino presence in America, which is good for the Mexican drivers, and it's important for NASCAR to have those drivers to market."

Fernandez said he is surprised that 10 years into the Drive for Diversity era, NASCAR still has not been able to create a top Hispanic personality.

Montoya's presence has certainly helped, but the Colombian was already well-known as an Indy car champion and a Formula One race winner before he elected to enter stock car competition.

"In my opinion, I think NASCAR hasn't done enough to bring up a proper Latin or Mexican driver," Fernandez said. "It's a huge thing missing from NASCAR, having a recognizable young Mexican driver. They have to treat it as an investment for the future. You can't expect a young driver to come in and be successful right away. You have to pave the way for them to get there.

"We had NASCAR racing in Mexico City with seven or eight Mexican drivers in the field, but it didn't have long-term impact because those drivers weren't racing in the top series in America, so people would forget about them."

Autos, Open-Wheel

Commentary

By Ryan McGee | ESPN The Magazine

The Chase was hijacked. And if you ask some, so was Saturday night's race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

For just the 16th time in 95 races, a non-Chase qualifier crashed NASCAR's postseason party. Brad Keselowski fell behind early after dragging a jack out of the pits underneath his Ford and pulling it all the way around the track, miraculously suffering minor, mostly cosmetic damage to the car.

After working his way back through the field, a late yellow flag for debris on the racetrack set Keselowski up for a shot at redemption and he seized it, surviving a thrilling late duel with Kasey Kahne and earning his first victory in 38 races.

After leaving Victory Lane, several members of the Miller Lite crew made a point to stop by the team hauler to inspect the same scarred aluminum contraption that they'd cursed on pit road earlier in the night. One went so far as to pat it like the family pet, audibly thanking it for not destroying their race car.

"To win under the circumstances," Keselowski said, "it was a great race."

Keselowski has seemingly been racing "under circumstances" all season long. He is the defending Sprint Cup champion by title only, denied a chance at a repeat when he failed to make the 13-car Chase field, victim of a 26-race regular season packed with a whole lot of rotten luck and more than a little controversy.

Just this weekend, he found himself in the headlines when Chase contender Kyle Busch said he was worried about possible retaliation from Keselowski for a Nationwide Series run-in at Kansas Speedway one week ago "because he's stupid enough to do something."

To Keselowski and his team, the jack dragging, which took place on Lap 87 of the 334-lap race, felt like just another round of bad fortune. At the end of a routine pit stop, the jack hung up under the car and was yanked out of jackman Braxton Bannon's hands.

But, for a night anyway, Keselowski's 2013 luck turned into his 2012 luck. Admitted team owner Roger Penske: "When I saw the jack, I said, 'Here we go again.' But in the end, it ended up being a great night."

The same caution that set the stage for Keselowski's first win also likely took away Jimmie Johnson's shot at his sixth, a victory that also would have given him the points lead over Matt Kenseth. With 27 laps remaining, Johnson was in the lead for the 79th consecutive lap when the night's fourth caution flag was shown for debris on the backstretch. After pit stops, Johnson stumbled through the restart and fell all the way back to seventh.

Ultimately, he finished fourth. That's not a bad night at the office. In fact, Johnson himself said earlier in the weekend that earning a top-5 and "moving on to the next race" would be a successful weekend. But having to look out the windshield and see Kenseth running one spot ahead made the whole situation more difficult to swallow.

"There was a caution that shook things up," Johnson said with a shrug, only slightly masking his frustration before adding that he'd looked for the debris that brought out the night-altering yellow but saw nothing. When asked if he had seen the debris, Kenseth said he hadn't even looked for it.

"I'm not sure what happened in the points," Johnson continued. "But I know it's awfully tight up there right now."

Full standings

Tight, yes, but also largely unchanged. Johnson entered the race three points behind Kenseth and left trailing by four. The peloton chasing those top two also primarily stayed put.

Front-row starters Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon finished sixth and seventh and remained third and fourth in the standings, respectively, both losing four points to Kenseth but remaining within that crucial buffer of a "race's worth" of points at 25 and 32 back, respectively. It was the same for Kyle Busch, who sits 35 points in arrears after finishing fifth.

"We got a decent finish, but our car was terrible all night," said Harvick. "The restart went our way there at the end and we were able to get a decent finish out of it. We survived."

Survival wasn't the goal at Charlotte, but it will be one week from now.

That's when, finally, the Sprint Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway, where pack-driven, calamity-punctuated, restrictor-plate racing has historically had a massive effect on the Chase standings.

Throughout the weekend in Charlotte, there was as much talk about Talladega as there was the track at hand. Kenseth and Johnson realize that NASCAR's most unpredictable superspeedway might be a chance to finally break up their two-car tandem. The pack behind them knows it might be their last chance to gain any significant ground before the season's four-race homestretch run.

"I don't know if anybody is looking forward to Talladega, but it's part of it," Gordon said in the garage Saturday night as his team packed up its gear. "You've got to go in there with a positive attitude and fight and do your best to try and avoid whatever may occur there, or what's going to occur, and hope you come out with a race car.

"It doesn't even have to be in one piece. It just needs to get across the line with a decent finish."

And hope that it's the other guy who gets jacked up.

ESPN The Magazine, NASCAR